About Clima Futura

Fabian Lienert, Ph.D, Chairman and climate forecaster, Clima Futura GmbH

   04/2007 – Masters of Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

   06/2011 – Doctor of Philosophy, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada

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During his PhD in the Canadian Global Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction and Predictability research network (GOAPP) at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) in Victoria, Canada, Fabian Lienert learned first-hand how William Merryfield’s, Slava Kharin’s and George Boer’s group set up the Canadian seasonal to interannual climate prediction system (CanSIP). He attended their meetings, where they discussed the progress of initializing the ocean, atmosphere, land-surface and sea ice model components of the global coupled climate model. This system is now operational at the Canadian metservice – producing monthly and seasonal weather and climate forecasts in a probabilistic manner. He worked with Slava Kharin, the statistical expert, on the verification of the hindcasts of CanSIP in the Pacific. In this way, He learned the statistical tools to judge the quality of weather and climate forecasts (published in his PhD thesis and in Merryfield et al., 2016). He also assessed the simulation of the response of North Pacific SSTs to ENSO in CMIP 3 models (Lienert et al., 2011). SSTs are the result of complex air-sea feedbacks.

As a post-doc in Francisco Doblas-Reyes’ group at IC3 in Barcelona, Spain, he continued working on seasonal climate prediction. This time based on hindcasts from ECMWF S4, the operational European system. He produced a set of global forecast maps including probabilistic skill maps (CRPSS) of wind speed and solar radiation for seasonal hindcasts of the system. He prepared seasonal and monthly probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and solar radiation for the renewable energy sector in Spain and met with the renewable power generation forecast group at the Spanish National Center for Renewable Energy (CENER) in Pamplona. Also as a post-doc, he started working on interannual climate prediction – verifying CMIP5 decadal hindcasts in the Pacific (Lienert et al., 2013)
and Atlantic including Europe and the Sahel (Lienert et al., 2016). A colleague from Argentina who visited us to learn about decadal climate prediction, took the R code of my North Pacific paper in order to apply it to the South Pacific. Also at IC3, he ran decadal prediction experiments with the EC-Earth 2.3 climate model after modifying the volcanic aerosol code in collaboration with Klaus Wyser (EC-Earth developer at SHMI, Sweden) and Tim Stockdale (ECMWF, UK). The model captures the AMOC response to volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo, etc., which could turn out to be a source of decadal skill.

Fabian Lienert’s literature is found here: http://lienert.org/